(originally posted 6/14/07)The skies were gray and overcast as I took a random walk through historic Somerville today. As I listened to the melodic metal stylings of Austria's Serenity, I pondered a matter of great importance. The matter, of course, being the Red Sox and their recent slumpy ways. What was once a twelve-game divisional lead has been reduced to a mere eight games by the streaking New York Yankees. With a challenging schedule awaiting the Sox in the near future, the mood of Red Sox Nation has become almost as gloomy as the foreboding sky. Would the Sox continue to flounder, perhaps even enough to allow the Yankees back into the divisional race? As I calculated that possibility in my head, I came to the obvious conclusion. No. Fucking. Way.
While I consider this conclusion to be unassailable, I would not present it to you, my reader(s), without some substantiation. The exculpation for the conclusion of inevitable Red Sox Superiority is mathematical, as well as, intangible in nature. While I am somewhat limited in my ability to explain the mathematics, due to proprietary concerns, the formulae (and their corresponding derivations) are available from Philly Fanatic, Inc. for a nominal fee.
It is not unusual for a team with a .650+ winning percentage to have periods with a winning percentage of less than .400, particularly over a long season. The Binomial Theorem tells us this. Considering the Binomial Theorem, in conjunction with the Central Limit Theorem, it is possible to determine the likely winning percentage of the Red Sox in 162 trials. (The proof of this is rather rigorous, and the keyboard I currently have at my disposal will not allow me to use the eight Greek letters necessary to provide a satisfactory explanation. However, I will be presenting on this topic in Stratham, NH in two weeks time, if anyone is interested in attending. For a nominal fee, of course.) I have had my calculations verified at The Math Shack, conveniently located in Somerville, MA, and will now reveal the 2007 Red Sox final regular season winning percentage. The Red Sox will finish with a .679 winning percentage, or 110 wins. The Yankees will finish with a .537 winning percentage, or 87 wins.
Not content with the above, I also statistically simulated the remainder of the MLB regular season. After a gajillion Monte Carlo simulations, the Red Sox had won the AL East 98.1% of the time. Once again, I can't really get into the mathematics behind this (unless you send a nominal fee my way. Sorry, no personal checks.) But, suffice it to say, the Red Sox are a near certainty to be AL East champs. (For a similar, but less rigorous analysis, click here. In this simulation, the Sox won the division only 91.078% of the time. Obviously, their math is a wee bit haywire, and they would be well-served to have The Math Shack check their figures.)
In addition to the mathematics, there is also a huge intangible reason that the Sox will win the division. The Influence and Power of the Triumvirate of Media Greatness. There is just no way the Sox lose the division lead with Caron, Benjamin, and Eckersley on the scene. In fact, even if the numbers didn't support the Sox, Eck would just kick the numbers' collective ass. So, no, I am not worried about the Red Sox.
Well, unless the Sox do something batshit and totally unpredictable. Like moving J.D. Drew to the leadoff spot, and batting Lugo, Crisp, and Drew in the 8-9-1 spots in the order. That would create an offensive void of sufficient gravitational pull to destroy objects of great mass. (For example, David Ortiz.) I am not certain that even Eck could save the Sox in that sort of scenario. But, hopefully, such a profane and unbelievable event will never occur.
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