Friday, November 28, 2008

Luck is the residue of design...

"Last time I was here, they thanked me for wearing pants!" Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon reminisced to no one in particular, as the 2009 World Champions walked on the South Lawn. GM Theo Epstein smiled, as he watched the inimitable reliever hold court. Epstein, himself, was now a veteran of three White House trips, and fully expected to make a few more return visits. Those future Championships, the young GM hoped, would be a little less emotionally draining.

Cutting ties with Captain Jason Varitek was the most difficult choice, at least from a personal standpoint. As a business decision, it was a no-brainer. The veteran backstop was on the downside of his career, as evidenced by his .646 OPS in 2009 with Detroit. Varitek lost the starting job to backup Dusty Ryan in August, and was considering returning to Boston for 2010, as a minor league instructor. Mike Napoli, acquired from the Angels in January 2009, had proven to be a satisfactory replacement. When Napoli went on the DL in early July, Epstein picked up Ramon Hernandez from Baltimore in a salary dump. Upon Napoli's return, the two veterans split time until the playoffs, when Napoli started 15 of 16 games. The Hernandez acquisition kept Napoli fresh for the postseason, and allowed the Sox to send Kevin Cash, and his OPS+ of 11, to Pawtucket. The Boston catchers combined for 32 HRs in 2009, 29 more than Varitek had produced for the Tigers.

Trading Mike Lowell to Anaheim had been almost as difficult. But, when you have a chance to lock up a premium bat like Mark Teixeira for the next decade, you do what it takes. Theo hadn't been worried about tying up $24 million a year in one position player, or blocking top prospect 1B Lars Anderson. He had prevented the division rival Yankees from acquiring the 29 year old All-Star, and had picked up the 2009 AL MVP without sacrificing any minor league talent. The Lars Anderson situation would work itself out in a few years, and eating a quarter of Lowell's remaining contract was an acceptable cost.

The only offseason objective that Epstein had failed to achieve was dumping SS Julio Lugo. The underperforming infielder was due $18 million through 2010, and had been slated to back up Jed Lowrie at SS. But a worthwhile trade could not be found, and Lugo entered 2009 as a $9 million utility infielder. However, Lowrie suffered a season-ending ankle injury in June, and Lugo was given the opportunity to start. Lugo was league-average, both at the plate, and in the field, but that's all the Sox needed.

Epstein's self-analysis was interrupted by the buzz of his cell phone. He smirked when he realized the identity of the caller.

Manny Ramirez: Theo, man, I don't think I'm going to be able to make it. My grandmother died.

Epstein: Don't worry about it, Manny. I am sorry for your loss.

Ramirez: I want to come back to Boston, boss. I love Boston. I want to retire a Red Sox.

Epstein: We'll see, Manny. I have to go meet The President now.

Epstein had learned long ago not to discount any possibility. He was in the business of winning Championships, and would do whatever he deemed necessary to return to the White House after every season. Any Red Sox could be traded, any former Red Sox could return.

(In Florida, free agent reliever Eric Gagne awoke with a start, clutching his Boston Red Sox bedsheets.)

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

This is not the Greatest Post in the World, it is just a Tribute

Dustin Pedroia was selected by the Baseball Writers With Votes as the 2008 AL MVP. Not a bad selection. He had an excellent year. The correct selection was teammate Kevin Youkilis, however. (Or, maybe, it was Joe Mauer.) But, Pedroia was a reasonable choice. He was certainly one of the top three possible choices. Without a doubt, he was in the Top 10. Right?

Well, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News doesn't think so. But, he must have, like, really good reasons. Heck, he wouldn't have a vote, if he didn't know things, n'est-ce pas?
What say you, Evan?

When I looked at the numbers that mattered to me the most, OPS,

OPS, huh? OPS is a good stat. At BI, we are partial to OPS+. But, we're cool with OPS. It's a lot better that Mostest Home Runs (MHR). Or, Greatest Number of At Bats with Runners on Base (GNABROB),
So, let's see who had the highest OPS in the AL. Milton Bradley (.999). Wow, .999. That is some serious OPS'ing. Milton must be near the top of Evan's list.

Here is Grant's 10-person ballot:
Kevin Youkilis
Francisco Rodriguez
Justin Morneau
Josh Hamilton
Carlos Quentin
Alex Rodriguez
Cliff Lee
Joe Mauer
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Pena

Nope, no Bradley. But, Evan considers other things...

and batting average with runners in scoring position

Yikes. We'll ignore the "batting average" part. We're sure he really meant "OPS with runners in scoring position." We're not too excited about looking at a sample size of 100 ABs, but let's check out how Milton did. He must have sucked. Cool name, minimal "clutchiness."
Nope. Milton had a .971 OPS with RISP. (And a .278 BA, for those who care for such things.)
So, Milton was at the top of the AL in the things that matter the most to Evan, but didn't make it into Evan's Top 10.

Let's look again at Evan's actual Top 10.

1. Kevin Youkilis

Excellent choice. We approve.

2. Francisco Rodriguez

Double Yikes. Yes, Rodriguez had the most saves in the History of Ever this season. How important are "saves", anyways? (Short answer: Extremely important, unless you are NOT Rodriguez' agent, or an immediate family member.)
Rodriguez pitched well, in 68.1 innings. Cliff Lee (5th on Evan's list) pitched well for 223.1 innings. Roy Halladay (not on the list) pitched well for 246.0 innings.
Rodriguez wasn't even the AL MVPitcher.

The rest of Evan's list isn't bad. Mauer could probably be a bit higher. Bradley and Halladay could be on there. Aubrey Huff (5th in AL OPS), perhaps?
Carlos Pena beat out Dustin Pedroia for the 10th spot, but Evan has reasons:

When it got down to it, the last place on my ballot was Pedroia or Pena, Pedroia or Pena. I don't have a guy from the Rays on my ballot and they won 97 games. I was going to vote to make sure Carlos Pena got recognized.

So, Pena was more MVP-y than Pedroia because Kevin Youkilis was a Boston Red Sox. Conversely, if Youkilis was a Tampa Bay Ray, would that have made Pedroia more MVP-y than Pena? What if Youkilis played cricket in Pakistan for the Otago Volts? In that case, is Pedroia more or less valuable than Pena?

Evan sums up his thoughts on Pedroia:

he just didn't stack up with Youkilis at all. He was a laggard behind the others who had great years in the American League

laggard (n.) - a person or thing that lags

Pedroia didn't stack up with Youkilis. Youkilis was a worthy top choice. BI would also like to salute Evan for using the sorely underutilized word "laggard." But Pedroia did not lag behind the nine others in Evan's Top 10. (Except, maybe, Mauer. There may have been some Pedroia-lagging there.)

Is it an error of omission that he's (Pedroia) left off my ballot entirely? You could say that.

Yes, Evan, you could say that.



(Hat tip: Boston.com's Extra Bases blog.)

Evan does admit that Pedroia should have been in his Top 10. He did do a pretty good job with the rest of his ballot. (Well, except the Rodriguez part.)
The real laggards here are:
1. the dude who voted Jason Bartlett 5th
2. whoever designed the BBWAA's web site (Triple Yikes)
3. the GM of the Otago Volts